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10/27/15 10:56
xkNpFC3Qo: Pin my tail and call me a dokeny, that really helped.
10/27/15 10:56
XXT1XuHhLP: I don't know who you wrote this for but you helped a brthoer out.
10/27/15 10:56
NaAAqfxYzcC: So much info in so few words. Tostoly could learn a lot.
10/27/15 10:56
x6Ck86pTg: Stuart - you might like a rest after your conference effrot (thanks again), but for a more mainstream look at the future, how about Jorgen Randers' ?Randers was one of the authors of Limits to Growth. His new book is an exercise in straight extrapolation from official data. He extrapolates the declining trend in fertility and concludes that global population will peak around 2040 (!). The working-age population will peak a little earlier, of course. He extrapolates the declining trend in productivity growth; together with population, that means the economy will stop growing about 2060. But because fixing weather damage and replacing formerly free ecosystem services like fresh water supply, fending off would-be immigrants, and looking after the old will take more of total production, household consumption peaks around 2045--earlier, in the former OECD.He extrapolates the energy efficiency trend, and putting that together with the economy trend concludes that energy consumption will peak around 2035. Extrapolating the trend in renewable energy growth, he concludes renewables will be about 40% of the total supply by 2052; total CO2 emissions will peak in 2030.Randers barely touches on the "automation threat" - he thinks there will be plenty of work for the soon-to-shrink workforce. It just won't be very well paid work, since it will mostly be in manual services and construction and maintenance.Randers's data is good, his trends seem like the important ones, and he identifies the processes behind the trends correctly. (If anything, he is a little optimistic in not allowing for the likelihood that something goes badly wrong.) But the conclusion is a bit surprising, and he doesn't spend much time discussing how each of the trends could vary, or what happens to the end result.I'd be interested in your opinion of the book.
10/27/15 10:55
O538jkSzPQIV: A minute saved is a minute earend, and this saved hours!
10/27/15 10:55
tilZIWKGX: You really found a way to make this whole preoscs easier.

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